Lebanon Politics

Let’s Redo some Math

On Monday Roger Khoury wrote an article in Annahar counting the number of votes each party has in the presidential election, Now that MP Antoine Ghanem died those numbers changed, so here are the old numbers and the new numbers:

1- March 14

  • FM and Allies 36 MP
  • PSP and Allies 16 MP
  • LF 5 MP
  • Kataeb 1 MP (After Ghanem Died 0)
  • Democratic Renewal Movement 1 MP
  • Independents (Former Kornt Chehwan) 6 MP

TOTAL : 65 MPs (64 MPs after Ghanem died)

2- March 8 + FPM

  • FPM 23 MP
  • Amal 16 MP
  • Hexbollah 14 MP
  • Baath 1 MP
  • SSNP 2 MP
  • Independents 3 MP

TOTAL : 59 MPs

Now I am sure you heard rumors about the Takatol L Traboulsi voting with March 8 if it gets some benefits in return (Mohamad L Safadi could become prime minister), so let’s say the Takatol will vote with March 8 and update the numbers

March 8 : 63
March 14 : 64

So as you see the difference between the two groups is only 1 MP, March 8 could close this gap easily. I am sure they could make a 14 March member change his mind, many Syrian started to become Lebanese after 1559, they did this back then because they felt this was the only way to survive politically and March 14 has a lot of those people in its ranks. The gap could also be closed if an MP dies soon (Guess how!). Finally the gap can be closed if the partial elections to replace Antoine Ghanem happen before the presidential election because we all know that a Hezbollah + FPM coalition has a big chance of wining the elections in the Baabda Aley region.